- Kellen Moore’s offense may benefit Chris Olave: Moore’s offense has put an emphasis on slot receivers, which interprets to fantasy factors. Olave could possibly be the first slot receiver for the New Orleans Saints this season.
- Olave’s concussion historical past makes him a major threat: Olave’s 2024 season ended after he suffered two concussions over a brief time frame. He suffered three others beforehand in his profession, placing him vulnerable to lacking vital time or probably retiring if he suffers one other concussion.
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Estimated Studying Time: 5 minutes
PFF’s Fantasy Soccer Participant Profile collection delivers essentially the most in-depth fantasy soccer evaluation accessible for the 2025 season.
Utilizing PFF’s unique information, we consider participant efficiency, competitors for touches and the way teammates and training staffs
Final up to date: 7:15 a.m. Sunday, Might 25
Participant efficiency
Olave was the eleventh general decide of the 2022 NFL Draft for a Saints crew with Michael Thomas getting back from harm and free agent addition Jarvis Landry as starters. Olave began in Week 2, Thomas was out by Week 4, and Landry missed a variety of the season attributable to harm. This made Olave the clear prime receiving choice on the crew, ending with 1,042 receiving yards whereas catching passes from Andy Dalton, which was double the following closest receiver on the crew. He completed this regardless of lacking two video games, and one miss was attributable to having the second concussion of his profession, which adopted one when he was at Ohio State.
Olave’s numbers had been remarkably comparable in 2023 regardless of a change in quarterbacks to Derek Carr. His routes per sport elevated, however his goal price decreased. This left his effectivity down just a little bit, however the improve in routes per sport led to extra whole targets, extra receptions, extra receiving yards, yet another landing and a transfer as much as nineteenth in fantasy factors per sport. Olave missed one sport attributable to an ankle harm, however he additionally suffered the third concussion of his profession and was capable of return the next sport.
The Saints received the primary two video games of 2024 with a mixed rating of 91-29. In Week 1, 5 different gamers scored touchdowns whereas Olave performed the function of a decoy. In Week 2, he caught 4 passes for 81 yards, however his enjoying time and routes run had been comparatively low as a result of blowout. Olave was effective over the following three weeks with 16 receptions for 183 yards and a landing. He suffered a concussion after two snaps in Week 6, forcing him to overlook Week 7. He returned in Week 8, totaling eight receptions for 107 yards. He suffered one other concussion after eight snaps in 2024, and the Saints shut Olave down for the remainder of the season.
All Olave per-game stats must be taken with a grain of salt, contemplating he left with a concussion after one reception in 25% of his video games, and one other 25% had been blowouts within the Saints’ favor. In his 4 regular video games, he averaged 14.7 PPR factors per sport, which might have been a career-high. One large concern is that if he suffers one other concussion. That will be his sixth documented case, which could possibly be a season-ender or career-ender.
His 25.4% goal price during the last three seasons is eighth-best amongst all broad receivers, whereas his 2.21 yards per route run is ninth-best.
Projected function
Olave’s function was constant within the first two seasons because the Saints’ Z receiver. In 2024, with out Michael Thomas on the roster, the Saints shifted Olave extra to the X receiver function, whereas Rashid Shaheed performed the Z and Cedrick Wilson Jr. was within the slot. The change left Olave as the primary learn on targets a lot much less, and he had a a lot decrease goal price.
The Saints had 5 different broad receivers who earned vital enjoying time, and the one one who left the crew was Marquez Valdes-Scantling, who’s now with the Seattle Seahawks. In his place, the Saints introduced again veteran Brandin Cooks, who began his profession with the Saints and performed with them from 2014-2016.
The Saints’ tight finish and operating again rooms remained largely the identical as the previous few seasons. This implies Olave must be the clear prime choice within the passing sport. Even when Rashid Shaheed recovers from his harm from final season and takes his stage of play to a different stage, there must be loads of targets for Olave and Shaheed.
Influence of teammates
The Saints introduced in Kellen Moore as their new head coach. His offenses are inclined to throw to broad receivers at excessive charges, regardless of having some nice receiving operating backs, in order that’s additionally excellent news for the broad receivers and unhealthy information for Alvin Kamara.
Over the past three seasons, Moore’s major slot receiver has averaged between 15.3 and 21.5 PPR factors per sport. His six major exterior receivers in three receiver units have largely been unrosterable in fantasy, however the main exception was A.J. Brown final season. Shaheed is a greater second choice than his different choices with the Los Angeles Chargers or Dallas Cowboys in 2022, so ideally, each will probably be precious. The query is who will play within the slot.
Each Olave and Shaheed have comparable measurables to one another. The Saints’ broad receivers are typically shorter, smaller and quicker than the broad receivers Moore is used to, exterior of DeVonta Smith final season. Each receivers have loads of expertise within the slot in latest seasons. Shaheed has 2.27 yards per route run when lined up out broad in comparison with 1.49 within the slot, whereas Olave has 2.23 within the slot in comparison with 2.16 out broad. This might make Olave the favourite for slot work.
Whereas Olave’s concussion historical past is the most important concern, the quarterback state of affairs is the following greatest. Derek Carr introduced his retirement, though he technically stays on the Saints roster. New Orleans drafted Tyler Shough within the second spherical, and he’ll compete with Spencer Rattler and Jake Haener for the beginning job. On paper, that is the worst quarterback state of affairs within the NFL. All three quarterbacks have a median to unhealthy focused makes an attempt per dropback price, which isn’t nice for the broad receivers. Nonetheless, if Olave takes the slot function, he may see a variety of low common depth of goal passes, the place the standard of the quarterback doesn’t matter as a lot.
Backside line
Olave has the expertise to be a top-15 fantasy choice, as new head coach Kellen Moore may assist him thrive. Nonetheless, the quarterback state of affairs is much from perfect, and Olave’s concussion historical past is a severe concern, making him extra prone to endure a season-ending harm than most gamers.
Footnotes
- Statistics in tables and charts had been chosen based mostly on their skill to foretell future fantasy efficiency on a per-game or per-opportunity foundation or to explain the participant relative to others on the identical place.
- “Alternatives” are outlined as passing dropbacks, speeding makes an attempt and routes run as a receiver.
- Numbers are offered both by season or based mostly on the previous three years. For rookies, solely faculty statistics are included. For non-rookies, solely NFL statistics are thought of, no matter whether or not they performed in faculty throughout the earlier three years.
- As faculty competitors is simpler than NFL competitors, most rookies are prone to see a decline from their historic numbers.
- Solely FBS information is taken into account for faculty gamers and comparisons.
- Kneel-downs are faraway from speeding information to offer cleaner quarterback speeding price statistics.
- The desk colours on this article vary from blue (indicating good/excessive) to pink (indicating unhealthy/low).
- All percentiles and shade codings evaluate the given participant to others with a excessive pattern of alternatives. Usually, the cutoff is one-third of the attainable alternatives within the pattern. If a participant doesn’t meet the edge, they’re nonetheless included within the comparability, although their outcomes could seem higher or worse than anticipated as a result of smaller, much less predictive pattern dimension.
- Data on utilization classifications and their significance may be discovered right here for operating backs, broad receivers and tight ends.
