The roster the Toronto Blue Jays will start their 2025 season with is filled with established veterans and recognized portions.
Of the 26 gamers who will likely be lively for Thursday’s opener towards the Baltimore Orioles, 23 of them match at the least one of many two following standards:
1. They’re 28 years outdated or older
2. They’ve at the least 4 full years of MLB service time.
Whereas there are some high-variance gamers in that bunch — like late bloomer Bowden Francis or Bo Bichette coming off a nightmare 2024 — the workforce has a strong concept of what to anticipate from the overwhelming majority of its gamers this season.
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The one participant who enters 2025 with essentially the most thriller surrounding them is the one Blue Jay who has but to look on the major-league stage: Alan Roden.
Roden is coming off a scorching spring that noticed him slash .407/.541/.704 with extra walks (six) than strikeouts (4), and his manufacturing at each stage of the minor leagues has been spectacular since his first professional season in 2023, posting a wRC+ between 133 and 150 at 4 totally different stops.
On the similar time, the outfielder was born the identical 12 months as Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and has persistently been on the older aspect for the degrees he’s appeared at. The 25-year-old’s calling card as a prospect is his superior strategy fairly than any loud, carrying instruments.
It’s tough to foretell what gamers with that profile will do on the highest stage. Projection programs have a tendency to like them primarily based on their statistical output, however the leap from triple-A to the majors is a giant one, and typically they’ve limitations that rise to the floor when they’re now not feasting on much less skilled opposition.
Cavan Biggio is an instance of a Blue Jays prospect who put up dominant numbers within the excessive minors approaching his mid-twenties regardless of an absence of eye-popping instruments, who finally didn’t turn into an influence bat (regardless of a tremendous begin to his profession).
Extra lately, the Blue Jays have had some success with this archetype with Spencer Horwitz and Will Wagner. Though the story on these two hasn’t been written but, having a look at how Roden compares to them ought to assist give a way of what it might be honest to count on from the outfielder.
Horwitz is the clear standout at this stage, which explains why he spent so little time there, however Roden’s numbers are awfully much like Wagner’s in each stylistically and when it comes to total effectiveness. It’s notable that Roden solely obtained one take a look at triple-A. Most of Wagner and Horwitz’s numbers come from once they have been each older and had extra expertise on the stage. Whereas Wagner hit the bottom working, Horwitz obtained off to a modest begin in his first style, posting a 101 wRC+ in 202 plate appearances in 2022.
Whereas Roden can’t match Wagner’s total numbers or mastery of the strike zone, his numbers stack up effectively right here. He was extra productive than Horwitz total, and confirmed by far essentially the most energy of the group.
These numbers (exterior of Horwitz’s) come from small samples, so it’s additionally useful to look underneath the hood somewhat bit, as Statcast has been obtainable at triple-A since 2023. That weeds out Horwitz’s work in 2022, however offers us a way of whether or not Roden has somewhat extra pop than his counterparts.
Triple-A Statcast Numbers
As soon as once more, Roden is pretty much like Horwitz and Wagner, with the now-Pittsburgh Pirate exhibiting off essentially the most sport energy with notably larger hard-hit and barrel charges than the opposite two.
The place Roden stands out is his max exit velocity, which demonstrates that his uncooked energy is above common. Final season, 405 MLB hitters put at the least 100 balls in play, and fewer than 1 / 4 of them (98) hit a ball more durable than 112.2 mph. Solely two Blue Jays — Guerrero and Alejandro Kirk — topped that quantity.
Though this energy has but to manifest in an explosive means on the professional stage, if his offensive growth permits him to attract on it additional, it may assist him keep away from being labelled as a participant with restricted energy at a non-premium defensive place. For now, the facility is basically speculative, and there isn’t a projection system at FanGraphs that has him producing an ISO higher than .130 in 2025.
The truth that Roden shares a number of similarities with Horwitz and Wagner — each when it comes to minor-league manufacturing and phone metrics — doesn’t inform us something definitive about what he’ll do for the Blue Jays. It’s actually a constructive that he’s according to gamers who’ve mixed to hit .272/.352/.432 within the first 511 plate appearances of their careers, however the jury remains to be out on that duo.
What these similarities exhibit is that Roden matches the pair each when it comes to type and substance. For essentially the most half, he comes with the identical promise and related considerations, however will probably be price monitoring if a slight energy enhance can nudge his ceiling larger than his comparables.
