- Tetairoa McMillan faces lengthy odds for the highest 10: His 4.55 40 time, 2.87 YPRR and 105.8 passer ranking when focused all fall beneath the everyday threshold for top-10 WRs.
- Just one WR with sub-2.60 YPRR and sub-120 passer ranking have cracked the highest 20: Jahan Dotson is the lone outlier, and 4 of this 12 months’s top-50 WRs fall into that dangerous class.
Estimated Studying Time: 9 minutes
The present iteration of the Large Board options 4 broad receivers ranked inside the highest 32 and 6 within the prime 50, headlined by Arizona’s Tetairoa McMillan at No. 3 general (Heisman Trophy winner Travis Hunter is listed as a cornerback).
With that in thoughts, I seemed again in any respect 31 receivers drafted in Spherical 1 since 2018 to seek for predictive statistical patterns. What I discovered doesn’t paint a promising image for this 12 months’s class — McMillan included.
A disclaimer
Earlier than diving in, it’s essential to make clear that the info introduced right here just isn’t meant to foretell what a participant will develop into on the NFL stage. We’ve seen numerous examples of prospects taken in Spherical 2 or later creating into stars. So, whereas this evaluation means that a few of the top-ranked receivers on this class is probably not first-round picks, it doesn’t suggest that their grades — or long-term potential — ought to be reconsidered. The grades are constructed to forecast NFL efficiency, not draft-day outcomes.
Three key knowledge factors
This could come as no shock to anybody studying this piece, however 40-yard sprint occasions have demonstrated legit predictive worth in the case of first-round broad receivers. Since 2018, solely three of the 25 first-round receivers who ran within the pre-draft course of (excluding six who didn’t run because of damage or private selection) have been clocked slower than 4.50 seconds within the 40-yard sprint, utilizing both NFL mix or professional day outcomes.
The three to interrupt that development? N’Keal Harry (4.53), drafted thirty second general by the Patriots in 2019; Treylon Burks (4.55), chosen 18th by the Titans in 2022; and Jaxon Smith-Njigba (4.52), who went twentieth to the Seahawks in 2023.
That alone is trigger for concern in the case of McMillan, who ran a 4.55 at his professional day this week, based on The Athletic’s Dane Brugler by way of two NFL scouts. To place it bluntly, there hasn’t been a single occasion prior to now seven drafts of a receiver operating slower than 4.50 — or, extra exactly, 4.45, the time posted by Rome Odunze final 12 months—being chosen within the prime 10 picks.
The subsequent knowledge level value highlighting is yards per route run (YPRR), a favourite among the many analytics group. This metric captures a receiver’s effectivity by measuring how a lot manufacturing they generate on a per-route foundation—the upper the quantity, the extra environment friendly and productive the participant.
Of the ultimate school season of every of the 31 first-round broad receiver draftees since 2018, solely three top-20 picks averaged lower than 2.60 yards per route run.
The bottom determine amongst top-10 choices got here from Rome Odunze, who nonetheless managed a strong 2.93 final 12 months. As compared, McMillan’s 2.87 places him just under that mark, whereas the opposite 5 receivers at present ranked in our prime 50 — Luther Burden III, Emeka Egbuka, Matthew Golden, Elic Ayomanor and Jack Bech — all fell beneath the two.60 threshold.
Notably, Ayomanor (1.90) and Golden (2.10) posted figures that rank behind all however one of many 31 first-rounders within the pattern: Jalen Reagor, who averaged 1.49 in 2019.
The ultimate knowledge level is passer ranking when focused — a simple but insightful stat. It’s the NFL passer ranking generated by a receiver’s school quarterback when throwing to him, providing a window into how environment friendly and efficient the receiver was in context.
A fast disclaimer: I used the passer ranking from every participant’s last school season most often, however there are three notable exceptions. Rashod Bateman performed solely 5 video games within the COVID-shortened 2020 season, so I used his 2019 breakout season as a substitute. Ja’Marr Chase opted out of the 2020 season fully, so his determine (a dominant 140.4) comes from LSU’s 2019 nationwide championship run. And Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who performed simply 60 snaps in 2022, is represented by his 2021 determine — a 141.4 passer ranking when focused.
Not one of the broad receivers drafted within the prime 10 since 2018 recorded a passer ranking when focused beneath 110.0. As soon as once more, McMillan falls wanting that benchmark, coming in at 105.8. For context, Drake London holds the bottom determine amongst that group at 114.3.
Among the many remainder of this 12 months’s mentioned group, Jack Bech (130.0) was the one one of many 5 to exceed a 120.0 ranking. This turns into particularly related when paired with the YPRR knowledge level. Solely 5 of the 31 previous first-rounders posted each a YPRR beneath 2.60 and a passer ranking below 120.0—and simply certainly one of them, Jahan Dotson, was chosen within the prime 20.
What does all this imply for this 12 months’s draft?
I’m not going to hyperlink 20 mock drafts from each nook of the draft group, however a fast search of your favourite nationwide draft pundit will seemingly reveal the identical development: McMillan is already slipping exterior the highest 10 in most projections. That’s robust for me to simply accept, contemplating I view his mixture of energy, catch-point competitiveness, and shockingly environment friendly route operating as elite traits. However primarily based on the info from this transient examine, the indicators do level towards a slide.
As for the opposite 5, I consider no less than two of Golden, Burden and Egbuka will hear their names referred to as in Spherical 1. Golden, for one, considerably helped his case by blazing a 4.29 within the 40-yard sprint on the mix — the quickest time amongst all receivers. Whereas I don’t count on Egbuka to match that velocity, he’ll have an opportunity to submit a robust time at his professional day subsequent Wednesday. Burden, in the meantime, did himself no hurt with a strong 4.41 on the mix. He’ll want to deal with the drop in targets and receptions throughout the 2024 season in crew conferences, however he nonetheless showcased his elite elusiveness by forcing 32 missed tackles after the catch.
Frankly, I consider all 4 from this group deserve to listen to their names referred to as in Spherical 1. At this level, it’s truthful to imagine Ayomanor and Bech are unlikely candidates primarily based on each rankings and the outcomes of this knowledge evaluation. Nonetheless, every of the remaining 4 has demonstrated game-breaking capability on the school stage—traits that sometimes justify a first-round choice, particularly at a place as coveted as broad receiver. That mentioned, my 17 years of protecting the draft have taught me a helpful lesson: simply because one thing ought to occur doesn’t imply it will.
